NextGen Update: Time &amp; Money

Welcome to Wired!

The Next Generation Air Transportation System is no longer a science project. Commercial aircraft must be equipped for NextGen by 2020, and that deadline is fast approaching. Proactive airlines, such as Southwest and JetBlue, have started upgrading their fleets. Others, it seems, are trapped in paralyzing decision-making debates of conflicting points.

Among them is the DOT Inspector General’s report of inadequate detail and timelines for the implementation of some components and software problems in the computer that processes incoming GPS-based aircraft positions and distributes them throughout the system.

Like any change in the status quo, NextGen is suffering growing pains. The technology involved is relative to the time. The transition from airway bonfires and beacons to radio ranges and radar suffered similar problems. The ground-based radar system NextGen is replacing was not born perfect, it matured with time. NextGen will do the same.

Another point is the ATC labor force. The FAA needs to train controllers for NextGen, and t0 offset retirements, it must hire and train roughly 11,000 new controllers by 2019. With this timeframe, there’s no need for alarm. This challenge doesn’t come close to the pinnacle of ATC workforce anxiety, the need to hire and train—right now—the replacements for the 11,345 controllers Ronald Reagan fired on August 5, 1981.

Decision-making debaters will rightly note that these problems might cause delays, thus giving airlines more time to discuss their NextGen strategy. But these delaying tactics do not change the unavoidable result: airlines must equip their fleets for operation in NextGen airspace.

As most managers know, when solving problems, there is a symbiotic relationship between time and money. The FAA will pay bills necessary to keep NextGen on time, a point sure to be made in the Administration’s FY2012 proposed budget, said Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood.

LaHood told Airline Transport World that “airlines have to make a ‘hard call’ on whether to make a significant upfront investment in equipping aircraft with NextGen-capable technology.” In reality, it is not a question of “whether” to equip. NextGen isn’t going away, so the question is really “when” to bring a fleet up to NextGen standards.

Which brings us back to money. In the Washington Post, the FAA estimated the full NextGen upgrade cost between $162,000 and $670,000, depending on the airplane’s age. What that might be in a few years, when deadline demand surpasses the supply of equipment and man hours needed to install it is anyone’s guess.

For those deciding to upgrade now, ATW reported that the House Aviation Subcommittee hoped to include “loan guarantees” and other assistance in the FY 2012 budget. But don’t count on it. Congress is still trying to pass the FY 2011 budget. The Wall Street Journal reported that the aviation appropriation before the Senate does not include any NextGen assistance for airlines, despite administration requests for it. Facing an even tighter fiscal situation in 2012—and reports of airlines with billions in cash reserves—assistance may be a dream politically unfulfilled.

One airline did get some help. JetBlue just scored $4.2 million from the FAA for ADS-B equipment in 35 of its Airbus A320s. Part of a multi-year, multi-phase trial, they will provide real data on the fuel and time-saving benefits of this NextGen component. The airline will cover all training and maintenance costs, and the trial’s key results are due in 2012.

In giving airline decision makers real numbers to crunch, the FAA hopes more of them will step up to NextGen now. Phase 2 will equip JetBlue with ADS-B (in), which displays traffic and other info in the cockpit, allowing tighter en route and terminal separation, thereby increasing capacity.

JetBlue engineers started work on ADS-B two years ago, and “independent of the FAA investment,” said CEO Dave Barger, “this is just good business.” In the Washington Post he said, “I’ll be delighted to make the rest of the investment” to equip the rest of its fleet of 116 A320s and 44 Embraer E-190s.

With this investment, JetBlue will join Southwest Airlines as the vanguards of NextGen technology. And to them go the competitive (and economic) advantages of getting onboard early. And that, too, must become part of the debate that determines when to step up to NextGen. If you want to be among the vanguard, ASIG can help make it happen.

Until next time, say 5x5, mission ready, and Wired!